10 per cent chance falling rockets will hit someone in next decade

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10 per cent chance falling rockets will hit someone in next decade
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There is a 10 per cent chance falling rocket parts will cause one or more casualties in the next decade – and the risk is biggest in densely populated, low-income countries near the equator

The wreckage of a Long March rocket that landed in Guizhou, China, on 31 December 2014 – fortunately, no one was hurtPieces of rocket falling uncontrolled back into our atmosphere may cause casualties, unless action is taken to limit the risk they pose.

The number of rockets launched annually has been steadily increasing in recent years, with 135 successfully going up in 2021 – the record for a single year. Many of these launches involve discarding part of the rocket in space after a satellite that is being carried up is boosted into its desired orbit. The rocket parts often then fall back towards Earth, and more than 1000 rocket bodies are estimated to have uncontrollably re-entered the atmosphere in the past 30 years.

Much of this debris falls into the ocean, which covers more than two-thirds of our planet’s surface, but some ends up striking things on land. In May 2020, a 12-metre-long pipe suspected to originate from a Chinese rocket . In April 2022, another piece of debris reported to come from a Chinese rocket landed near a village in India. Wreckage of a Chinese Long March rocket also landed in Guizhou, China, in December 2014 .at the University of British Columbia in Canada and his colleagues have calculated the danger that such falling debris poses.

“We think this has to stop,” says Byers, who wants rocket companies to be told to keep leftover fuel to target safe re-entries over uninhabited ocean regions. “We have modern rockets that can avoid uncontrolled re-entries, rather than playing Russian roulette with the Ivory Coast and India.

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