Here’s a look at the preseason odds to win AL Cy Young, with three of our favorite targets to bet ahead of Opening Day on Thursday.
The value has been sapped a bit at this number, as Gausman has drawn the highest percentage of tickets and betting handle at BetMGM as of Tuesday. Still, there’s a reason bettors are so high on the Blue Jays ace.
Gausman’s 3.35 ERA last season won’t impress anyone, but that doesn’t tell the whole story: he led the AL in FIP , strikeouts per walk and swinging strike rate , but he was hindered by the highest BABIP among all qualified starters. It’s easy to see why: Toronto had one of the worst outfield defenses in MLB last year, which the team aggressively prioritized as a fix in the offseason. I see very little reason why Gausman would be hit with such bad batted ball luck again this year, which could portend a Cy Young effort in 2023.After years of showing upside as a future ace with the Astros, Javier is well-positioned to take over as a front-end arm for the World Series favorites. And he’s got the stuff to justify it.
The 26-year-old righty threw just 148.2 innings last year – just short of qualifying for the leaderboard – but he would have ranked sixth in ERA and first in xERA across the full season. Over his final 19 appearances, he led all qualified AL starters in strikeout rate while posting the lowest zone contact rate and seventh-lowest hard-hit rate .
Simply put, Javier was virtually unhittable over the back half of the year, ending the regular season with 25.2 straight scoreless innings before dominating in the postseason, too. This price isn’t as short as it’s been all spring, but it’s still worth the wager on such an electric arm.
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