GDP is giving us a misleading indication that the economy is heading toward recession, some economists say. By several measures used for declaring recession, the U.S. is far from one.
The U.S. might fall prey to recession in the near future, but it isn’t entering one now and any such talk of a shrinking economy would be “fake,” in the words of one analyst.
Rarely has GDP shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared. The only time in U.S. history that happened was in 1947. “It would be tough to say we have a recession with 3.6% unemployment,” said Fed. Gov. Chris Waller, who’s been pushing for faster rate increases to try to squash inflation. He said the Fed has to do whatever it takes to pop the inflation bubble.
All these relatively healthy vital signs suggest a 2022 recession would be “fake,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist of Jefferies. Markowska thinks a recession — if one occurs — won’t start until 2023. A majority of Wall Street DJIA, -0.69% economists agree, recent surveys show. Consumers and businesses, on the other hand, are still spending and investing. Those are the two biggest pillars of the economy.
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