The Colorado River could lose about one-fourth of its flow by 2050, new research says.
In their 2017 study, Udall and Overpeck used climate models to estimate a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. They projected that without changes in precipitation, warming will likely cause the Colorado River’s flow to decrease by 35% or more this century.
The two states agreed to leave a portion of their water allotments in Lake Mead under a deal with California called the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, which the states’ representatives signed at Hoover Dam in May. The drought contingency plans — one for the three Lower Basin states and the other for the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico — are designed to help boost the reservoirs’ levels between 2020 and 2026.
The latest research underscores the growing challenges for water managers and policymakers as they consider how to adjust the rules or change the system to adapt to a river with less water.
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