America may be suffering from high inflation but its nominal GDP was almost exactly at its long-term trend in the third quarter
America may be suffering from high inflation but its nominal GDP, which combines output and prices in a single measure, was almost exactly at its long-term trend in the third quarter. It has blown past forecasts made before President Joe Biden introduced $1.9trn in fiscal stimulus in March.
Some doves argue that the return to trend is a sign that policy has been well-calibrated, unlike after the global financial crisis. But nominal GDP may now be overshooting: many forecasters think it is growing at double-digit annualised rates in the fourth quarter, as stimulus fuels fast growth and high inflation.
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