Analysis: Josh Allen is injured. How much should the point spread move?
The NFL’s gravitation toward the passing game has made quarterback play more valuable than ever. As a result, one of the most important tasks for oddsmakers — and bettors — is to estimate the impact of a change under center, such as the oneas MVP candidate Josh Allen deals with an elbow injury. Not every quarterback will influence the game to the same degree, but if you can get these projections right, you could find an edge over the market.
We also know teams favored by two points win approximately 53 percent of games, and pick ’em games are 50-50 propositions, making the value of a typical starting quarterback around two points more than a backup in the point spread.As noted, not all starting quarterbacks are created equal, nor are their backups. The Bills have an MVP-caliber passer in Allen, who is day-to-day with an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow.
Nevertheless, the numbers suggest we are on the right track. The line for Buffalo’s upcoming game with the Minnesota Vikings opened at Bills -9½ before making a stop at -7½. It has drifted lower since and was at -3½ on Friday morning. The implication is that Allen is worth four to six points over Keenum.We saw this method come close to the actual results earlier this season when Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed two-plus games because of a concussion.
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