Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) early in 2023 after the European Union imposes a ban on seaborne imports from Monday, two sources at major Russian producers said.
The estimate is at the lower end of market analysts' forecasts of the combined impact of the ban and a proposed price cap on Russian oil, although the sources said the true level would depend on several factors yet to be settled.
The EU, its biggest buyer, cut purchases in response to the conflict, but Moscow successfully diverted supply to Asia and exports slipped only slightly to 7.6 million bpd. It is also unclear whether shipping and insurance companies will be able to move Russian oil around the world that has been bought for more than the agreed ceiling.
G7 nations had earlier proposed a cap of $65-$70 per barrel, aound the current price of Russia's main export blend Urals, while Poland wanted it far lower at $30.
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