Analysis: Sanders faces a challenging 30 days in his quest to defeat Biden
is just beginning but already the calendar says their battle is at an advanced and potentially decisive stage. Assumptions that Democrats are headed toward a genuinely contested convention might well be wrong.
The pre-primary polls showed Clinton with a substantial lead, but on primary night, Sanders won. The margin was narrow — less than two percentage points — but the value of the upset was enormous. The victory revived his campaign, and he took his fight all the way to the convention in Philadelphia, to the dismay of Clinton forces.
Sanders has other potential problems Tuesday. Three of the six states with contests held caucuses four years ago; Sanders got 78 percent of the vote in Idaho, 73 percent in Washington and 64 percent in North Dakota. He netted 68 delegates in those three contests. This year Washington and Idaho have shifted to primaries. Even if he wins all three again, and polling in Washington shows a close race, Sanders won’t get nearly as many delegates.
A week after that, on March 24, there is a stand-alone primary in Georgia. Clinton crushed Sanders there in 2016, winning more than twice as many delegates. Because there is no other event that day, a big Biden victory will feed a story line of the former vice president’s strength among the party’s most loyal constituency. Five days later, there will be the Puerto Rico primary, which Sanders lost against Clinton.
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