Analysis: Trump’s not only leading, he’s leading with those more likely to vote
. With groups where Trump’s support is weaker, more respondents pick a non-Trump, non-DeSantis option. That’s a problem for DeSantis for a simple reason. If the race comes down to Trump vs. non-Trump, there are several billion people who fit into the latter category. There’s only one former president Donald Trump.
conducted at the time of the 2012 presidential election showed that more-conservative voters and strong Republicans were more likely to report having voted in the primary. Republican primary voters with college degrees were more likely to have voted than were those with only a high school education.
That year, more-moderate primary voters and independents were more likely to vote for non-Trump candidates. But in part because Trump did better with more-conservative voters who were more likely to turn out and in part because more people voted, Trump prevailed despite the skepticism of more-centrist primary voters. More than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who supported non-Trump candidates in 2016 had college degrees.
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