The first airborne campaign to study summer cyclones could help improve Arctic weather models and sharpen the picture of how summer cyclones may be accelerating the retreat of Arctic sea ice, already on the run because of GlobalWarming.
The storm began somewhere between Iceland and Greenland, as disturbances high and low in the atmosphere united into a full-fledged cyclone. One day later, the vast spiral of winds had grown nearly as big as Mongolia. It was on a beeline for Svalbard, the archipelago between Norway and the North Pole, and heading for the thin floes girding the Arctic’s vulnerable pack of summer sea ice. And that made John Methven very, very happy.
With data from the ice-skimming plane, a second aircraft flying through the tops of the storms, and dozens of weather balloons, the Thin Ice teams hope to learn how these common but poorly understood storms form, function, and chew up sea ice. They also plan to gauge how the properties of the sea ice—smooth, rough, or missing—feed back into the storms themselves.
On 29 July, U.K. scientists kicked off the Thin Ice campaign with an ice-skimming flight out of Svalbard’s Longyearbyen, the world’s northernmost town.Unlike hurricanes, Arctic cyclones blow across an ocean partly covered by sea ice—with complex consequences for both winds and ice. Early in the summer, the storms’ cloud cover can inhibit melting.
Modelers are also eager for surface-level data, especially along the rough, busted-up perimeter of the ice pack, a region called the marginal ice zone. In the past few years, Renfrew says, a few models have begun to include a parameter to account for the roughness of the marginal ice instead of treating it as uniformly smooth. That seems to improve the models’ forecasts of cyclones and ice loss, but researchers don’t know whether their parameter matches reality.
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