Just when the Middle East started showing some semblance of peace and stability, the forever smouldering powder keg ignited after the audacious Hamas
Geopolitical risk attack on Israel. Outside of oil prices, which typically elicit a buy-first-ask-questions-later response to Middle East geopolitical escalations, broader markets should veer risk-off but possibly slide to a more wait-and-see mode to determine if there were puppet masters behind the attack. Particularly Tehran, which could all but guarantee a broader conflagration. Historical analysis suggests that oil prices tend to experience sustained gains after the Middle East crises.
Indeed, 10s that rise above let alone stay above 5%, will tighten financial conditions significantly, which is a circuitous way of saying the selloff is sowing the seeds for its reversal. Indeed, a + 5 % 10 y yield will send tremors not just in markets but across the real economy at a time when the U.S. consumption impulse may be poised to slow.
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