Asian shares edged up on Monday while bond markets held their breath ahead of an update on the U.S. rate outlook from the world's most powerful central banker, and a jobs report that could decide if the next hike needs to be super-sized.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries stood at 3.94%, after last week's spike to 4.09% proved tempting enough to attract buyers.
Markets have become resigned to more rate rises from the Federal Reserve but are hoping it will stick with quarter-point moves rather than switch back to half-point hikes.on Saturday reiterated rates would have to go up but set a high bar for moving to half-point increases.All of which sets the scene for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he will no doubt be quizzed on whether larger hikes are needed.
Much, however, might depend on what the February payrolls report reveals on Friday. Forecasts are centered on a more modest increase of 200,000 following January's barnstorming 517,000 jump, but risks are on the upside."Powell's testimony comes before the payrolls and inflation numbers, therefore, he is likely to avoid committing to a policy path," said Jan Nevruzi, an analyst at NatWest Markets.
"Payrolls are due on the final day when Fed officials can publicly discuss monetary policy, but CPI will be released during the blackout period," he added. "If we end up in a situation where the jobs and inflation numbers present a conflicting view, the outcome of the Fed meeting could become even harder to predict.
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