Market Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500, US Dollar Index Futures. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists. To wit:In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”The Federal Reserve also suggests the same.
Furthermore, as discussed previously, tighter monetary policy’s “lag effect” is still working through the system. As Michael Lebowitz noted: We have tracked the median point of the Fed projections since 2011, and they have yet to be accurate. The table and chart show that Fed projections are always inherently overly optimistic.
However, this time, we will note the dates that the National Bureau Of Economic Research dated the beginning and end of the last two recessions.best guesses.”
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