Despite Florida State's messy season opener against Georgia Tech, lopsided line movement has positioned the Seminoles into a value bet ahead of their home opener against Boston College.
Despite Florida State's messy season opener against Georgia Tech, lopsided line movement has positioned the Seminoles into a value bet ahead of their home opener against Boston College.
Georgia Tech’s defensive line deserves credit for that, as it was clearly improved from last season when it created pressure on only 23.6% of opposing dropbacks. It repeatedly put Uiagalelei into stressful moments, and he simply does not fare well once a play design has broken down.will not spark that frustration, however. The Eagles’ pass defense ranked No. 128 out of 133 teams last season in expected points added per dropback, and opponents increased their expected score by an average of 0.
Boston College’s offensive philosophy is likely to see a reset; that is why you hire Bill O’Brien. The Eagles struggled massively on early downs last season, and a strong Florida State push could revive those woes. This line sat at -21.5 for more than two months before Florida State’s loss last weekend dropped this to -16.5 at some books. This is the kind of line movement that makes it seem like the Seminoles lost to Jacksonville State, not a respectable program like Georgia Tech.Moving a spread through multiple key numbers and five total points while not adjusting the total underscores the thought that this line move stemmed from an overreaction, not savvy betting.
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