Analysts at Rabobank note that based on the domestic fundamentals and the geopolitical risks, assess the outlook for the Brazilian Real against the US
Dollar. Key quotes “Externally,Hamas attack on Israeltriggers global risk-off sentiment, afterUS payroll grows above expectationsin September and a USgovernment shutdownis delayed.” “Domestically, theBCB governorstill sees the current 0.
50bp-cutting pace as appropriate, after the BCB released the latest Copom minutes and the CPI mid-monthly inflation in September confirmed inflation convergence will be slow.” “Our take:Geopolitical risks add depreciation bias to our view of the USDBRL at 5.05 by end-2023 as the BRL and other EM currencies had already been enjoying less carry trade gains. For now, with Fed Funds rate held at high levels until yearend and local relative fiscal fragility, we still see the USDBRL trading at 5.
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