The stock market’s prolonged pullback from its 2023 highs began in July just as the 10-year Treasury yield began its steep ascent from 3.75% to 5%.
When political operator James Carville said nearly 30 years ago that he'd like to be reincarnated as the bond market because then he "can intimidate everybody," he couldn't have known this included the stock investors of 2023. He spoke as a top aide to President Bill Clinton during a previous bond-market crash that was serving to retrain an economy that was just starting to cruise while crimping the administration's plans for expansive fiscal programs.
Of course, even if long-term yields were rising largely in response to a better-than-expected economy and a patient but resolute Fed, the effect is to have long rates rising much faster than short-term yields, un-inverting the Treasury curve – which is something that historically happened as the economy neared a recession.
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