The Philippines’ president-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr inherits a fast growing economy but faces mounting headwinds. He will have to find drivers beyond the infrastructure spending that made his predecessor – and father – so popular, says petesweeneypro
Outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte was controversial for many reasons: his foul mouth, his pro-China pivot, and his. But by the numbers, his administration delivered growth and a relatively quick recovery from the pandemic. Domestic consumption and investment rose as harsh lockdown measures relaxed. The Asian Development Bank now forecasts national output to grow 6% in 2022 and 6.3% in 2023.
Part of that will certainly be thanks to resuming upgrades to the country’s rickety transportation and telecommunications networks that in turn should increase economic efficiency and create jobs. Public debt, at roughly 60% of GDP, is manageable. However, where Duterte was able to borrow cheaply given negligible global inflation and low interest rates, Bongbong is walking into an era of global volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
Marcos senior borrowed heavily to build infrastructure, which fueled growth but also corruption, then engendered a debt crisis and deep recession. His son has better options. Relaxing border controls is already underway; before Covid-19 hit, tourism comprised nearly a quarter of activity.
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