Working out the impact of the next recession is important because one is on the way, sooner or later
s through the post for people who did not have the time to drop into a branch of Blockbuster. The biggest firms in the world were old-economy stalwarts such as General Electric and Royal Dutch Shell. Myspace ruled online. That seemingly distant era was when America, followed by Europe and most of the rich world, last fell into recession.
Much has also changed. First, the digital world is more dominant. An economic bounceback has fuelled the rise of global tech giants that have disrupted incumbents in retail, taxis, hotels and many other businesses. The example of tech upstarts has seeped through to non-tech firms, which are now more asset-light. Managers have shiftedspending from buying servers to renting them through the cloud, for example. The second change is that bosses may have less room to cut costs.
Beyond the giants, insurgents have emerged. Airbnb and Uber have turbocharged the matching of buyers and sellers. Financial innovators such as LendingClub and SoFi facilitate millions of loans by connecting people who need money with those with some to spare. Subscription offerings have flourished, delivering anything from ready-made meals to makeup. For many this will be their first downturn; for some it may be their last.
While it is not Silicon Valley’s forte, ruthless cost-cutting has always been part of the playbook for companies outside the tech industry when the economy slumps. In the last recession the labour costs of American firms dropped by 7% in total as they laid off workers and squeezed wages to protect shareholders and avoid default.Room for manoeuvre is now more limited. In some cases this is because cost structures have changed. Over $200bn of annual corporateand Microsoft.
Predicting these fiascos is hard but there are some general warning signs. After a long bout of dealmaking, goodwill is at a record high of $3.6trn for500 firms. This can indicate trouble. In 2000-01 and 2007-09 firms made huge goodwill write-offs as they confessed to dodgy deals.
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