China: Inflation loses traction in February – UOB – by pabspiovano China CPI Inflation Banks
“Headline inflation slowed to 1.0% y/y in Feb, the lowest in a year, with easing price pressure seen across both food and non-food components. This indicates that the recovery in domestic demand is not on solid grounds yet.”
“The PPI remained in deflation for the fifth consecutive month, which worsened to -1.4% y/y in Feb . This was again attributed to a high base comparison particularly high oil prices while the National Bureau of Statistics said that the production recovery of industrial enterprises has accelerated, and market demand has improved. On a sequential basis, PPI was flat after falling in the two preceding months.
“People’s Bank of China indicated there may be little room for policy adjustment this year as the real interestare at a relatively appropriate level. We will review our LPR forecasts after the rate setting on 20 Mar. Although we have factored in a 10bps cut to the LPRs by end-1Q23, the prospect of that happening has weakened. More important to watch will be the 5Y LPR as a reduction to the rate will signal strong government support to the real estate sector.
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