China is playing close attention to how Ukraine, a smaller and outgunned force, has battled what was thought to be one of the world’s most powerful armies. Experts say China will be parsing weaknesses as they might apply to its own Soviet-style military.
Experts have been collectively stunned that Russia invaded Ukraine with seemingly little preparation and lack of focus — a campaign along multiple, poorly-coordinated axes that has failed to effectively combine air and land operations.
“It’s a very personal war on his part,” Graham said. “And I think the expectation that this would be a cakewalk is obviously the biggest single failure.” “The wakeup call for Central Military Commission is that there are more unknown factors involved in any such campaign than they may have anticipated,” Chen said.
China’s military has a tradition of respect for initiative from lower-ranking soldiers dating from its revolutionary origins, said Yue Gang, a Beijing-based military analyst. By contrast, Russian forces in Ukraine have shown weaknesses where decisions have had to be made on the front lines, he said. China’s military is highly opaque and outside the purview of civilian judges and corruption investigators, so it’s difficult to know how thoroughly the organization has been exorcised of practices such as the selling of commissions and kickbacks on defense contracts.
The stated goal of China’s military reform is to “fight and win wars” against a “strong enemy” — a euphemism widely understood to refer to the United States. Berger stressed the need for strong coalitions in the Pacific as a way to keep China’s ambitions toward Taiwan in check.
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