Two new studies led by a North Carolina State University researcher offer a preview of what electricity consumers on the West Coast could experience under two different future scenarios: one where excessive heat due to climate change strains power supplies, and one where the grid shifts toward renewable energy while the climate follows historic trends.
, researchers used computer models to simulate the impacts of climate change on the current power grid in California and the Pacific Northwest. They evaluated the grid’s price and reliability under 11 different climate scenarios between 2030 and 2060, drawing on multiple scientific models for how the climate would change under a “worst-case scenario” of fossil fuel emissions, and another less severe scenario.
However, they noted these power shortfalls would remain relatively rare. The maximum under the worst case was 72 hours of West Coast-wide power supply shortages across 31 years. “If, and that’s a big ‘if,’ historic exchanges of electricity continue, and California has a high demand for electricity because of heat, it could cause the Pacific Northwest to run out of electricity, as they won’t be able to meet their own demand,” Kern said.
In addition to issues of reliability, the researchers also found climate change would increase the price of power. Under the worst case where climate change impacts power supply and demand in both California and in the Pacific Northwest, they expected more hours in which the wholesale price of electricity reaches the cap of $1,000 megawatts per hour in California, especially in late summer. Climate change in California would also have significant impact on prices in the Pacific Northwest.
Even with renewables, they found extreme drought and heat would still drive the extremes in price – with “good” years of the lowest prices driven by mild temperatures and high streamflow, and the highest prices driven by extreme heat or drought.
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