Climate Change Doubled the Likelihood of Devastating South African Floods

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Climate Change Doubled the Likelihood of Devastating South African Floods
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Hundreds of people were killed and thousands of homes destroyed in Durban after torrential rains unleashed flooding

CLIMATEWIRE | Parts of South Africa are still reeling nearly a month after heavy rains and catastrophic floods wracked the coastal city of Durban and surrounding areas, killing hundreds of people and destroying thousands of homes. Now, scientists say the extreme rainfall was worsened by the influence of climate change.

This region of southern Africa, he added, is one of those places. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that extreme rainfall is likely to intensify there as the planet continues to warm. Recent studies from WWA have found that climate change worsened the extreme rainfall produced by tropical cyclones in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi earlier this year. It made the heavy rainfall and severe floods that devastated Western Europe last year much more likely. And the astonishing heat wave that scorched northwestern North America last summer would have been virtually impossible without the influence of global warming.

In this case, some locations were affected worse than others. Some of the heaviest-hit weather stations recorded rainfall qualifying as a 1-in-200-year event — an extremely rare disaster. Averaged across the whole region, though, the heavy rainfall constituted about a 1-in-20-year event. That means in any given year, there would be about a 1-in-20, or 5 percent, chance of such an event occurring.

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