Global petroleum inventories have fallen to their lowest seasonal level for seven years as producers have failed to raise output to match the rapid rebound in consumption since last year’s coronavirus-driven recession.
In contrast to shortages in coal, gas and electricity, the oil shortage is largely discretionary, as producers in the OPEC+ group of major exporting countries and U.S. shale firms have opted to limit increases in their output.
Low stocks have created an asymmetric risk profile in which the market is more vulnerable to unexpectedly fast growth in consumption or unanticipated supply outages than the reverse. In percentage terms, the current deficit to the pre-pandemic five-year average is in the 87th percentile for all months since 1995, which confirms the market is fairly tight in historic terms.
OECD commercial inventories have fallen almost 425 million barrels over the same period, also more than reversing their previous rise of 334 million barrels during the first wave.
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