CNN’s ForecasterEnten tells smerconish why he thinks a contested Democratic convention is a “real possibility.”
They look to be the first caucuses in which at least four candidates reached or exceeded 15% of the vote. In fact, they mark the first time in any Democratic primary or caucuses that at least four candidates reached or exceeded at least 15% since all caucuses and primary contests became proportional with a 15% threshold to earn delegates in 1992. It's also the first time since 1992 in which the leader of the Democratic caucuses received under 35% of state delegates.
Bernie Sanders are the nominal national frontrunners, though their positions are quite weak. Both are at less than 30% nationally, even when we allocate undecided voters. Since 1992, the Democratic national frontrunner post-Iowa was at 35% or greater in every cycle. The Iowa caucuses may have made the picture even more muddled.
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