Nile countries could gain economic benefits from new framework AdmissionsUoM NatureClimate
The analysis of the GERD’s initial filling and long-term operation shows that adaptively managing the dam to maximize the national benefits of any of the three countries would be costly for at least one of the other two countries. We show that a compromise adaptive management approach could produce balanced benefits for the three countries. These results demonstrate the opportunity cost of not implementing collaborative adaptive solutions, especially under extreme climate change projections.
Although the adaptive formulation examined in this study includes some controlling features that constrain basin-wide water management, it represents an incremental step towards adaptive cooperation. Our goal is to show that any step towards adaptive cooperation results in benefits.
Practical use of the proposed framework in Nile negotiations requires riparian countries to negotiate an adaptive formulation and define the ranges within which decisions can be optimized. The philosophy behind the adaptive formulation should be guided by a long-term vision to counter future climate and socio-economic uncertainties.
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