UBS: The coronavirus crisis has pushed $1 trillion in corporate debt to the brink of default. Here's where to expect the most carnage — and which industries will be spared.
The coronavirus pandemic has now brought about a sudden global contraction that one expert thinks may even devolve intoAs such, credit strategists at UBS warn that more than $1 trillion in corporate debt may be distressed. This means the companies — representing about 13% of the roughly $8 trillion corporate-credit market — are at risk of defaulting or seeking bankruptcy protection.
"Our biggest concern by far regarding downside risks in corporate credit has been leveraged and middle-market loans," said Matthew Mish, UBS' head of credit strategy, in a recent note. were blaring long before the coronavirus crisis hit. The market, which services companies with non-investment-grade ratings that would otherwise struggle to secure lending, ballooned from $497 billion in 2010 to more than $1 trillion in 2019.
Investors were rewarded for their risk taking with the highest yields for any fixed-income asset relative to its market value after the financial crisis, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs. However, the economic recession will stress these companies balance sheets and test investors' appetite for their risk-laden yields. As the chart below shows, investors are already repricing the risk. Junk bonds are not the only securities at risk. S&P Global Ratings has warned that the coronavirus crisis could increase the number of so-called: companies with the lowest investment-grade rating that are downgraded to junk territory.
Rating agencies have already swung into action with warnings and downgrades on companies most exposed to disruptions caused by the coronavirus.
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