With Russia expanding its influence in Niger, and the U.S. having troops stationed there, some Western observers worry that the coup could lead to conflict.
Similarly, Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, doesn't expect to see a clash between American soldiers and Wagner fighters.NewsweekHe said that while Wagner has 1,000 to 1,500 fighters in Mali and might soon deploy some to Burkina Faso , the mercenary organization doesn't have forces on the ground in Niger at this point.
"Wagner is thought to be involved in some of the anti-Bazoum, anti-French and pro-Russian disinformation that has been going into Niger, though," Siegle added. But terrorism researcher Colin P. Clarke has warned that Russia could look to take advantage of the situation in Niger.on Thursday, Clarke said that"we should avoid overhyping the role of Russia in instigating coups in African nations, but we also need to be careful not to underestimate Moscow's ability to take advantage of what it views not as crises, but as opportunities to project influence.
"Civilians would be the clear losers in such a situation, as conflict would push Nigeriens to flee both within the country and across borders," said Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group think tank."And jihadist groups would be the obvious winners, using the turmoil to expand their reach within the Sahel, recruit new members, and gain control of larger swaths of territory.
"I do think the chances of this are rather remote, but they aren't zero. Still, at the end of the day, the U.S., Russia, China and France all stand to lose something if the entire Sahel tips into regional state failure."
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