The Biden administration estimates 100 million COVID-19 infections this fall and winter.
“Each subsequent variant is more transmissible,”, a chair of the department of pulmonary medicine at Cleveland Clinic, tells SELF. “BA.2.12.1 seems to be even more transmissible than BA.2,” which is even more transmissible than the original omicron variant and delta as well, Dr. Culver says.
Rising case counts highlight the transmissibility: In the U.S., the average positive test rate was 2.5% at the beginning of April; as of May 7 it was 7.8%, according to data from. And the stats are probably even higher than we know, due to the way most are getting tested now, Dr. Culver says.
Before widespread immunization efforts, the above factors might have resulted in a lockdown, similar to those implemented during the early days of the pandemic. However, experts advise against jumping to the conclusion that we’re headed for another shutdown, and they stress the crucial differences between early 2020 and now.