Crude Oil Price Forecast: Two-Way Action Continues - What's Next?

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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Two-Way Action Continues - What's Next?
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Crude oil prices turn sharply lower. The base case scenario holds that prices will trade between approx. 94.42 and 114.20 for the foreseeable future. IG Client Sentiment Index shows crude oil prices with a near-term bullish bias.

Despite a lot of two-way price action, not much has truly changed for crude oil prices. But for a few days in early-March, trading has been contained between the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extension levels measured from the November 2020 low, October 2021 high, and December 2021. The recent breakout from the March/April triangles produced a return to the high set on March 24 before failing.

It’s difficult to suggest that crude oil prices have sustainable bullish momentum. Crude oil prices below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-EMAs, but are finding support at their daily 21-EMA. The EMA envelope is no longer in bullish sequential order. Daily MACD is on the verge of issuing a sell signal , while daily Slow Stochastics are about to exit overbought territory.

As was noted at the end of April, it remains the case that “traders should anticipate continued volatility within the recent two month range; the multiple percentage point moves within the range effectively means that crude oil prices are moving fast, but going nowhere.” I t remains the base case scenario that crude oil prices will trade between approximately 94.42 and 114.20 for the foreseeable future.Nothing has changed materially since the end of April. “On the weekly timeframe, it remains clear that that bullish momentum has stalled.” Crude oil prices are slipping below their weekly 4-EMA, though the weekly 4-, 8-, and 13-EMA envelope remains in bullish sequential order.

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