Opinion: The New Hampshire primary probably won't tell us who will be the Democratic nominee, but that might be a good thing for the party. By MichaelGordonUS of GroupGordon
of the Democratic party, the breathless speculation on New Hampshire is intense but missing the mark.
Since 1980, with the exception of Bob Dole and George W. Bush, New Hampshire has saved Republican after Republican who has faltered in Iowa. Three of the past four Republican Presidents, including the current one, proved their case first in the granite state. Other than when incumbent Presidents are on the ballot, the Republicans have never chosen the same winner in both early contests.
When New Hampshire has amplified the Iowa result and given a candidate a double-victory, the results have been disastrous. Starting in 1980, the three times Iowa and New Hampshire agreed on a winner in contested primary battles, the Democrats lost the general election: John Kerry in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, and President Jimmy Carter in 1980, when he was in a primary nomination fight with Senator Ted Kennedy.
When a primary nomination seems preordained with the one-two punch of Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic voters can be less engaged. So while pundits and the opposition party like to laugh at the array of candidates vying to take on Trump, a spirited battle to Milwaukee could be the ticket to victory in November. A longer, contested primary season could be enough to help the party defeat President Trump, who is showingThere is much to be decided during this primary season.
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