The size and shape of the defeat augurs ill for Democrats’ chances of holding their congressional majorities in next year’s midterm races
A few factors may have exacerbated the Democrats’ poor performance. Mr Biden had hoped to have Democratic candidates boasting about all the party has accomplished so far. But his congressional agenda has stalled amid factional party infighting, which may have depressed the base. Terry McAuliffe, whom Mr Youngkin defeated, ran a flat-footed campaign focused almost entirely on Mr Trump, who was not on the ballot.
The bigger force at play, however, is the typical backlash against the party that controls the White House. The off-year Virginia governor’s race has swung against a newly elected president in every contest since 1981. The average swing in vote margins against the incumbent party is about ten percentage points, though the penalty can be as high as 17 in rare cases.
Yet this implies Democrats are powerless to combat electoral losses, which they are not. Though results from elsewhere in the country seem to offer hints on the surface, they do not offer a clear answer to the party’s dilemmas.
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