Lebanon's elections Sunday won't yield a seismic shift despite widespread discontent with a graft-tainted political class blamed for a painful economic crisis and a deadly disaster, experts say.
Given Lebanon's sectarian-based politics, it will likely "reproduce the political class and give it internal and international legitimacy", said Rima Majed of the American University of Beirut.
In the current parliament, the Shiite Hezbollah party and its allies, including the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, command a majority. The anger exploded into months of street rallies but lost momentum as the Covid-19 pandemic hit, together with a financial crash that the World Bank has labelled one of the world's worst in modern times.Popular fury flared again after a huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate that had languished in a Beirut port warehouse for years exploded in August 2020, killing more than 200 people and devastating entire neighbourhoods.
Public sector jobs have long been among the main handouts, but now fuel and cash assistance also feature high on the list, giving an advantage to established parties over new opposition groups that lack funds and foreign support. While independents will likely do slightly better than in 2018, when only one of them won a seat, said Feghali, the winner once more is likely to be Hezbollah, Lebanon's biggest political and military force, and its allies.
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