Ahead of Thursday's by-election in North Shropshire, we consider just how significant a loss at these votes can be
in London’s commuter belt, another formerly safe seat, in June. Some Tories fear that, after weeks of government scandals and U-turns, a good thrashing in Shropshire could be a death blow for Boris Johnson’s leadership of his party—and therefore his tenure in 10 Downing Street.
A look back at past by-election defeats for Conservative governments suggests several political facts. The immediate beneficiary is usually the. After the party’s win in Chesham and Amersham Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dems’ leader, knocked down a wall of blue bricks with an effete orange hammer . But Liberal Democrats have never benefited from by-election triumphs in the long term. There is little to suggest that a win in North Shropshire denotes anything different.
Some comfort for Conservatives, perhaps—but beware the fate of John Major. His government’s by-election loss in Christchurch was sandwiched between defeats to the Lib Dems almost as devastating, at Newbury and Eastleigh. Voters sensed weakness and division. The by-election at Dudley West, a Midlands seat, in 1994 was the first after Tony Blair was elected Labour leader. His party won it from the Conservatives on a 29% swing. Those defeats created momentum against the government.
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