Experts say Russia doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Ukraine — and recruiting Syrians and Chechen paramilitaries is unlikely to help.
Russia also has an estimated 2 million personnel in its military reserves—some of whom have already been deployed to Ukraine—but the Institute for the Study of War“few are actively trained or prepared for war,” estimating only 4,000 to 5,000 reserve troops were considered “active” as of 2019.
Russia can also conscript new troops—drafting young Russian men into mandatory service—but Frederick Kagan, senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, toldthey would not be trained in time to be quickly deployed to Ukraine, and sending them before they were trained means they’d “be basically cannon fodder.”that conscripts have been sent into combat in Ukraine, in violation of Russian law.
Kagan noted that it’s “very hard to say” how many troops Russia has around the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv that are “still combat effective,” and it’s difficult to estimate how many would be needed to capture Kyiv or other cities, given that so far Russia has “underperformed very badly” while Ukraine has “wildly overperformed what most people thought they would be able to do.
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