The safe-haven U.S. dollar traded close to a 16-month high to the euro on Monday on growing anxiety over the impact of surging COVID-19 infections in Europe, with Austria reimposing a full lockdown and Germany considering following suit.
An more rapid end to tapering raises the possibility of earlier interest-rate increases too. Currently the market is priced for the Federal Open Market Committee to start hiking rates by the middle of next year.
"EURUSD has been in free-fall and will likely get the lion’s share of attention from clients looking for a play on growing restrictions and tensions across Europe," Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne, wrote in a note to clients.Europe has again become the epicentre of the pandemic, accounting for half of global cases and deaths.
Worries that a slowdown in Europe could hit energy demand dented crude oil, which was also in retreat over the prospect of a U.S.-led release of emergency stockpiles. "We expect AUD to remain heavy in the near‑term a dip to $0.70 is possible," with a slowing Chinese economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish policy stance dragging on the currency, Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a report.
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