Democrats see the Pennsylvania Senate race as their best chance to flip a seat. Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman aka “the gentle giant' may end up being the Democratic nominee:
Pennsylvania primary voters are preparing to head to the polls on May 17 to decide who will represent the Republican and Democratic parties in a pivotal November election that could determine which party holds the U.S. Senate for the next two years.
“He’s in a very comfortable position to win the primary on the Democratic side,” Yost told MarketWatch. “He’s well liked among Democratic voters, he’s raised a lot of money from small donors and he’s outspent his opponents. You want to be in John Fetterman’s shoes.” Fetterman has made use of his platform, promoting signature issues like legalizing recreational marijuana POTX, -5.70% and criminal justice reform that he believes are not just progressive, but also appeal to a large number of Donald Trump voters in Pennsylvania’s many deep red, rural counties.While Fetterman appears to have a firm grip on the Democratic nomination, “there’s no clarity at all about what’s going to happen in the Republican race,” Yost said.
“It’s going to have some impact, but we can’t see it right away because you have another well-funded candidate” in McCormick, he said. The former hedge funder has been inundating Pennsylvania voters with advertisements that accentuate his roots in the western part of the state and attack Oz for past positions he’s taken on fracking and abortion, among other issues.
One of the best predictors of success in midterm elections is polling about whether respondents prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, and since last fall, these data have been trending toward the GOP. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics averages of polling show Republicans with a three percentage-point advantage by this score, bad news for Democrats hoping to get elected to Congress in the fall.
And while midterm elections typically hinge on the public’s approval of the incumbent party, that correlation is less strong when it comes to races for the Senate, where the quality of an individual candidate can be a difference maker, Yost said.
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