South Carolina’s earthquake swarm continues. Larger earthquakes unlikely, but possible. Read our swarm advisory and scenarios here:
ELGIN, South Carolina — The USGS is providing scenarios to estimate the chance of larger earthquakes as part ofThe swarm began on December 27, 2021, with a magnitude 3.3 earthquake. The largest earthquake to occur so far has been a magnitude 3.6 event on June 29, 2022.
This area has a history of occasional small, scattered earthquakes, but none of particularly large magnitude. The largest earthquake within 50 miles was in 1913 in Union County, when a magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck about 90 km northwest of the recent earthquakes. That quake caused damage to brick and stone buildings, destroyed chimneys, and displaced furniture in homes. The most damaging earthquake in South Carolina history was the magnitude 7.
The USGS provides scenarios that are based on the assumption that the rate of smaller earthquakes remains roughly the same over the next month. The most likely scenario is that the swarm continues as it has over the past months, confined to the region already affected by the swarm. The rate of earthquakes in the swarm is likely to remain the same, if not decrease slightly, over the next 30 days. Smaller magnitude earthquakes will likely be felt by people close to the epicenters. The swarm could also stop completely during this time.A less likely scenario would be a somewhat larger earthquake in the magnitude 4 range.
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