The European Central Bank will hike its key interest rates by 25 basis points on June 15 and again in July before pausing for the rest of the year as inflation remains sticky, according to a clear majority of economists polled by Reuters.
After a combined 375 basis points of hikes over the past year, economic activity in the 20-member bloc has slowed, with Europe's biggest economic engine - Germany - and the euro zone as a whole falling into a winterStill, both economies are expected to rebound this quarter and the euro zone to grow 0.2% in each quarter for the rest of the year, the poll showed. Price pressures and
About three-quarters of economists, 43 of 59, forecast another 25 basis point rate hike in July, a stance hardly changed from a May poll. That would take it to a terminal rate of 3.75%, in line with market expectations. But a significant minority saw at least one more rate hike from the Fed, more likely in July than June, which some say may give ECB policymakers further incentive to also raise rates in July to maintain the euro's strength.A majority, 38 of 59, then predicted the ECB's deposit rate to remain unchanged at 3.75% until the end of 2023. While 17 had it at 3.50% or lower by year-end, four had it higher at 4.00%.
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