Strategists predict markets volatility in 2023 because it has not yet factored in the likelihood of a recession. Home prices reports and consumer confidence reports are due Tuesday.
At 9 a.m. ET, home prices for September will be released by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
For the year, home-price growth as measured by the 20-city index is expected to rise 10.8% annually in September. While that’s a large spike to be sure, it would be the fifth month in a row of slower growth, down from a record 21.3% in April, and the smallest annual gain since February 2021.It’s expected to slip two-and a-half points to 100.0, the lowest since June, after a steeper-than-expected drop to 102.5 the previous month on inflation and recession worries.
In a Monday analyst note, the strategists – led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Cecilia Mariotti – said there is a 39% probability of a growth slowdown in the U.S. over the next 12 months. Despite that, risk assets are only reflecting an 11% chance.The analysis showed that equities typically rebound once inflation has peaked if the economy avoids a recession. If the U.S. enters a downturn though, stocks could decline another 10% on average in the six to nine months after the peak.
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