We’re facing the most widely forecast recession in history—and investors don’t seem to care
First, inflation comes down on its own, not because demand collapses. Second, the Fed recognizes in time that it doesn’t need to crush demand to get inflation back to target. Third, the sharp rise in interest rates that’s already happened doesn’t cause a recession, or a recession is so shallow that earnings are basically fine.
I put little faith in economic models that have missed so many recessions in the past. But it’s hard to have faith that stocks are having anything other than a bear-market rally, either. A look at the markets shows asset managers are moving money around in ways that suggest they see a recession coming. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains what to look for and why they tell us investors are increasingly pricing in a recession. Illustration: David FangCopyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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