Summer Electricity Outlook, a supplement to our May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the largest increases in U.S. electric power
generating capacity will come online by June 2022, an increase of 2% from last summer. Despite this increase in capacity, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation at the national level will be slightly lower than last summer.
We forecast the price of natural gas delivered to electric generators will average nearly $9 per million British thermal units between June and August 2022, which would be more than double the average price last summer. The higher expected prices and growth in renewable generation will likely lead to less natural gas-fired generation in some regions of the country.retiring coal-fired power plants
over the past decade. Between June 2021 and June 2022, the electric power sector will have retired 6 GW of U.S. coal-fired generating capacity. In previous years, higher natural gas prices would have resulted in more coal-fired electricity generation. However, coal-fired power plants have been limited in their ability toin recent months as a result of mine closures, rail capacity constraints, and labor market tightness. These coal supply constraints, along with continued retirement of generating capacity, contribute to our forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline by 20 million MWh this summer.
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