Colorado State researchers project 18 total named storms, compared to the average of 14. Five have already occurred.
, with increased odds of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard this season. It could mark the eighth consecutive season with an average or above-average number of storms in the Atlantic, which has been churning out destructive hurricanes at a breakneck pace since the last slowdown in 2015.Tuesday and increased its projections for the number of named storms from 11 to 15 to 13 to 17, which is in the near- to above-normal range.
on U.S. soil, compared with a long-term historic average of 43 percent. Specifically, the East Coast, including the Atlantic coast of the Florida Peninsula, has a 25 percent chance of encountering a major hurricane, and the Gulf of Mexico coast has a 31 percent chance, according to their outlook.A budding El Niño pattern is expected to peak in the autumn and will probably persist into the first half of the wintertime.
“Sea surface temperatures across most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remain at record levels,” wrote Colorado State’s update, spearheaded by researcher Philip Klotzbach, “so despite the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño, the impacts on tropical Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear are likely to not be as strong as is typically experienced given the extremely warm Atlantic.
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