The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been flattening over the last few months as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike rates, and some analysts are forecasting more extreme moves or even inversion.
Unabated inflation supports their argument, with recent consumer prices readings fueling market expectations that the Fed may increase rates more aggressively than anticipated to cool the economy.
Treasury market includes Treasury bills with maturities from one month out to one year, notes from two years to 10 years, as well as 20-and 30-year bonds.Typically, the curve slopes upwards because investors expect more compensation for taking on the risk that rising inflation will lower the expected return from owning longer-dated bonds. That means a 10-year note typically yields more than a 2-year note because it has a longer duration. Yields move inversely to prices.
Two-year U.S. Treasury yields , which track short-term interest-rate expectations, have risen to 1.54% from 0.73% at the end of last year - a 110% increase.
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