Here's what to know about Europe's energy supply.
Russian officials have not signaled they would consider cutting supplies in the case of new sanctions. Moscow relies on energy exports, and though it just signed a gas deal with China, Europe is a key source of revenue.
“I think in the event of even a less severe Russian attack against Ukraine, the Russians are almost certain to cut off gas transiting Ukraine on the way to Germany,” said former U.S. diplomat Dan Fried, who as State Department coordinator for sanctions policy helped craft 2014 measures against Russia when it invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.
Interrupting gas supplies beyond the Ukrainian pipelines is less likely: “If they push it too far, they're going to make a breach with Europe irreparable, and they have to sell the oil and gas someplace,” Fried said.It's a major gas producer and already is sending record levels of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by ship worldwide. It could only help Europe a little.
Over the past month, two-thirds of American LNG exports went to Europe. Some ships filled with LNG were heading to Asia but turned around to go to Europe because buyers there offered to pay higher prices, S&P said.Not in the event of a full cutoff, and it can't be increased overnight. Export terminals cost billions of dollars to build and are working at capacity in the U.S.
If Russia stopped sending just the gas that goes through Ukraine, it would take the equivalent of about 1.27 shiploads of additional LNG per day to replace that supply, said Luke Cottell, senior LNG analyst at S&P. Russia also could reroute some of that gas through other pipelines, reducing the need for additional LNG to about a half-shipload per day, he said.
“Russia is disturbing European gas markets, with the U.S. talking about exporting basically the next ‘Berlin airlift’ for natural gas to Europe,’’ he said.
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