Amazon in the firetrap: Deforestation and warming lock rainforest in dry and damaged grassland state NaturePortfolio
. Simulated fire occurrence highly depends on the vegetation type, its moisture, and tree architecture, which is modeled by LPJmL , while fire-induced mortality affects vegetation dynamics within LPJmL. Both, vegetation dynamics and fire occurrence, are further impacted by climate and influence the atmosphere through changes in the water and energy cycle.
Our experimental setup covers three simulation phases : The first phase reflects a standard procedure letting global vegetation and climate equilibrate together. In the second phase , the area of the Amazon basin is completely deforested and only grass is allowed to grow. In the third phase, trees are allowed to recover . The model experiments are performed for a number of different constant atmospheric COconcentrations and with fire either enabled or disabled.
Fig. 1: Conceptual experimental design for testing the influence of fire on the Amazon regrowth potential. After bringing climate and vegetation into equilibrium over 1500 years under historical atmospheric COconcentrations , for two model set-ups , all trees in the Amazon region are removed and only grass can grow for 250 simulation years . It is followed by another 250 simulation years where trees are allowed to grow again . At the end of the last simulation phase, the relative difference in biomass between the model set-ups is taken, which denotes the role of fire in preventing forest recovery .
We find that a warmer and drier regional climate caused by the grassland state increases fire activity, which locks large parts of the Amazon forest into the grassland state and prevents forest recovery. In the experiments without fire, the forest was able to recover within 250 years, which emphasizes the important role of fire in the irreversibility of tropical deforestation.
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