In the days after a new virus was identified in China on Dec. 31, global central...
WASHINGTON/RIYADH/FRANKFURT - - In the days after a new virus was identified in China on Dec. 31, global central bankers fell back on past experience for a comforting early analysis.
Now, as global finance officials gather in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the latest Group of 20 summit, they will do so having intensified both their level of concern and the breadth of their detective work to understand the economic implications of the outbreak. In the United States, Fed officials are quizzing local business contacts and hearing from entrepreneurs blindsided by vulnerabilities in their supply networks.
Barkin said unknowables include just how flush businesses were with parts inventories before China began quarantines and business closures to stop the spread of the virus or how flexibly companies can move to other suppliers. These are issues not captured in any particular economic model, leaving central bankers globally in a scramble to get a grip on them.
“My read is if everything gets up to speed in the next few weeks it will be a minor bump that won’t be an issue. If you are out for months then you have a more significant impact on probably 10 to 15 percent of the economy” that depends on Chinese suppliers or exports to the country, Barkin said.
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