Commodities Analysis by Florian Grummes covering: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, USD/CNY, Gold Futures. Read Florian Grummes's latest article on Investing.com
prices have taken a dip as hopes for a rate cut diminish following the reduction of broader conflict risks in the Middle East. As the attention is now turning to the upcoming Fed meeting, gold is now hovering above the USD 2,300 psychological mark looking for further stabilization and new input.
Of course, the tense geopolitical situation could trigger a renewed rise at any time. The slightly oversold technical chart and a possible consolidation triangle at a high level also favor a continuation of the recovery and also suggest the possibility of a rally continuation. Overall, while the weekly chart remains bullish, the reversal signals are increasing somewhat. Only if a weekly closing price above USD 2,380 is achieved soon could the rally continue. Otherwise, the correction in the gold market will likely gradually expand in the coming weeks and find its low in the range between USD 2,075 and USD 2,150.On the daily chart, it’s easier to observe that a first series of lower highs and lower lows has emerged in the gold market over the past two weeks.
Overall, the daily chart leans slightly bearish. The distance to the 200-day moving average is considerable, indicating significant correction potential. While an intermediate recovery could delay the continuation of the correction, the probabilities of a rally continuation remain manageable below USD 2,380. However, prices above USD 2,400 would be a clear signal for gold’s victory lap and new all-time highs.
For instance, the Federal Reserve in America may, due to the extremely tangled and highly complex situation, possibly lose control at least temporarily, surprising the markets. Despite persistent high inflation, the Fed may soon be forced to lower interest rates to stabilize the markets. For example, last week saw the bankruptcy of Republic First Bancorp, another US regional bank.
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