Claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 55,000 last week. A surge in Covid cases is likely a factor, but not the only one.
The Labor Department adjusts its weekly unemployment data to account for these seasonal patterns. But pandemic-era distortions to the labor market make it more difficult to control for those factors.
"Seasonality in the best of times can be tricky to interpret, especially during a pandemic when everything is upside down and really wacky," according to AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at job site Indeed. It's therefore hard to assess the impact of rising Covid cases on layoffs and furloughs relative to the typical winter reasons."We are starting to see something. Maybe it's just a little blip, and hopefully not a longer multi-week trend," Konkel said."My suspicion is this is the economic impact of the surge showing up in data."Despite last week's pop, unemployment claims are still relatively low by historical standards.
Initial claims for benefits hovered around 215,000 in mid-January 2019 and 2020; 286,000 claims were filed last week. "Initial claims are still fairly low, still close to pre-pandemic levels," Zhao said."And the labor market was very strong before the pandemic."That's due largely to the current high demand for workers. Job openings are near record levels and a record 4.5 million people"I don't think we'll see a repeat of massive layoffs we saw in early 2020," Konkel said.
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