Is this new coronavirus really a serious danger? Doesn't the flu kill more people?As the United States recorded its first coronavirus death Saturday -- and as other cases popped up in people without known risks on the West Coast -- Americans wondered how to measure this new threat against a more
As the United States recorded its first coronavirus death Saturday — and as other cases popped up in people without known risks on the West Coast — Americans wondered how to measure this new threat against a more familiar foe: influenza.
Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2%. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower rate: 1.4%. Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. As an epidemic comes under control, the reproduction number, as it’s called, will fall.
There seems to be another important difference: The flu appears far more dangerous to children, particularly very young ones, who can become severely ill. Children infected with the new coronavirus tend to have mild or no symptoms. Most cases of coronavirus infection are not severe, but some people do become quite sick. Data from the largest study of patients to date, conducted in China, suggests that of coronavirus patients receiving medical attention, 80% had mild infections, about 15% had severe illnesses, and 5% were critical.
But it is not known how long that immunity will last. With other coronaviruses, which cause the common cold, immunity can wane. They’re not miracle cures: They can lessen the severity of the illness and shorten its course by a day or so, and they may lower the risk of serious complications.
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