Economic modelling shows that the compromise legislation might bring the United States within range of meeting its climate commitments.
, which included around $550 billion in energy and climate investments. That bill encountered opposition from conservative Democrats, including senator Joe Manchin from coal country in West Virginia, whose vote was crucial for it to succeed.
On 27 July, Manchin surprised some government watchers when he agreed to a new version that would dial down the bill’s overall price tag but maintain most of the original energy investments — including $160 billion in tax incentives for clean electricity and $35 billion for technologies intended to reduce vehicle emissions. Senate Democrats also rebranded the bill as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
Jesse Jenkins, an energy modeller at Princeton University in New Jersey, who heads a consortium that is analysing the legislation’s impacts, says the core energy and climate provisions have been preserved in the new agreement. Modelling by his group suggests that the legislation could reduce US emissions by the equivalent of nearly one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2030, or two-thirds of the reduction needed to meet the US climate goal.
Other modelling efforts project similar trends if the legislation is enacted. Modelling by Energy Innovation, a consultancy based in San Francisco, California, suggests that annual US emissions could dip to 37–41% below 2005 levels by 2030. A third analysis by the Rhodium Group, a consultancy based in New York, projects they could drop to 31–44% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Consistency among the models lends confidence to the results, says John Bistline, an energy modeller at the Electric Power Research Institute, a non-profit organization in Palo Alto, California. Nonetheless, the models are not crystal balls, he says, and uncertainties around the pace of technological innovation, commercial deployment and consumer uptake could alter the trajectories.For environmentalists, the revised spending bill contains some disappointments.
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